• conceptual framework
• "sensemaking" device
• different situations require different ways to navigation
• 5 decision making contexts

simple, obvious, clear

1. Sense

• the situation

2. Categorize

• the situation into a know bucket

3. Respond

• with a well-known solution

• best-practice

• The 1 way solution

• clear cause-and-effect

• relationships are evident to everyone

• a right answer exists

• tags.known-knowns

• Example: solving a simple arithmetic problem

complicated

1. Sense

• the problem

2. Analyze

• the problem & roadmap

3. Respond

• with a plan

  • better said "THE PLAN"
  • blue print
    • the truth is in here

• you're looking for an expert...?

• best-practice

• 1+1=2

• have risk, known unknowns that can go wrong

• tags.known-unknowns

complex

1. Probe

• experiment-evaluate-repeat
• gathering knowledge

2. Sense

• dive into the new and determine next steps

3. Respond

• take action moving the problem into the complicated domain

• emerging practice

• "The truth is out there somewhere"

• clear only in retrospect.

• "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts"

• domain of uncertainty, unknown unknowns.

• "Wicked problems"

  • there are no good answers
  • the path will be created with every step
  • the art of learning how to play (metagame)

• context is most important

• Almost any problem that involves humans tends to be a complex problem.

• This is the realm of heuristic and principle, pointing you in the general direction of ways to classify the problem, and general approaches that seem to work for a specific pattern.

chaotic

1. Act

• really..trust your instinct
• get out of the immediate danger zone

2. Sense

• once out of the immediate danger zone, assess the situation and determine next steps
  • inspiration guide (how to act when all hell breaks loose)

3. Respond

• take action to move your problem to another domain

• Novel Pratice

• Knowledge gathered throughout lifetime is only partial useful

• When hell breaks loose, don't freeze, get out or get hurt of worse

• disorder

• if you don't know where you are, if you feel lost in the woods

• gather information -> identify the domain -> move on

When you believe

• all is simple
• everthing is ordered
• past success makes you unvulnerable to future failure before you know it the chaotic domain grabs you by the throat and drags you into a ciris(simple domain -> chaotic domain)

Moving through domains

• chaotic -> complex -> complicated -> simple
• simples -> chaotic (clockwise move; "buildup of biases", complacency, lack of maintenance, )
• counter-clickwise movement; people die and Knowledge is forgotten, new generation question the rules, etc.
• chaotic -> simple (counter-clockwise push; lack of order causes rules to be imposed suddenly)

Links

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin_framework
• Difference between heuristic and best-practice